Predict Election Results 2025. As of the end of july 2025, assuming a biden gallup approval score of 40 percent and a continued rate of jobs growth between 1 and 2 percent, the model predicts a very narrow democratic 2025 victory in the electoral college (275 votes). Updating average for each candidate in 2025 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning each. Outlets across the united states have been crunching numbers, parsing polls and working their magic models to predict the outcome of tuesday’s presidential election.